Howdy!

It’s day two of DAS, and I’m hearing a lot of stablecoin talk. These institutions like crypto — but only the boring stuff.

Today, we’ve got updates on the market and SOL futures.

Mid-week markets

The first-ever Solana ETFs in the US are set to launch tomorrow, a move that could escalate market intrigue and institutional capital flows. Florida-based Volatility Shares LLC will bring two Solana futures ETFs to market: the Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ) and the 2X leveraged Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLT). 

Institutional interest in Solana has never been higher, and the launch of these ETFs are expected to do gangbusters for exposure and trading flexibility. However, the move does come amid an already volatile market backdrop. Solana continues to lead in transaction volume and user engagement, but structural forces suggest greater turbulence ahead, with traders closely monitoring liquidity trends and technical setups.

One signal of potential sturm and drang is the volatility in Solana’s stablecoin flows. USDT trading on Solana’s transport layer surged 137% in late February, after plunging 61% the previous week. For what it's worth, prognosticators often descry stablecoin movements to be an early indicator of broader market sentiment, with sudden spikes suggesting capital is either fleeing risk or rotating into new opportunities.

Around the same time, Solana’s DeFi trading volume hit a yearly low of $2.25 billion, alongside a notable drop in active users. In the weeks that followed, the price briefly cratered to $121.99. Nearly a month later though, Solana has shown resilience, largely rebounding from these setbacks.

However, Solana’s price action remains at a technical crossroads. If SOL decisively moves above the 20-day EMA ($137), traders will expect a rally toward the 50-day SMA ($167) and potentially $180. If the market fails to break higher, it could lead to a retest of key support zones in the $110-$120 range. Failing that, the next major supports are at $98 and $80. The price of SOL at time of publication does look favorable, on the up at $133.15.

With the ETF launch hours away, discerning eyes will be watching for market reactions. Institutional adoption could help stabilize Solana’s positioning, but if the recent wave of volatility continues, traders should still be prepared for sharp price swings.

— Jeffrey Albus

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Solana futures had an unremarkable first day — but it’s all a matter of perspective. 

A memo from K33 Research noted that CME SOL futures booked roughly $12 million in volume on their first day, CoinDesk reported. Bitcoin and ether churned $102 million and $31 million on their first days of futures trading, respectively.

Those assets also had much bigger market capitalizations than solana when they began trading. Normalized for market cap, SOL futures’ first day was roughly equal to BTC and ETH.

— Jack Kubinec

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